Jerome model in Oregon: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, whereas Trump will win 45.8%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, since they often contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Oregon. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 54.2 percentage points worse.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Oregon. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Oregon. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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