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Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 48.7%.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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