The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 55.7%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 55.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.