The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will win 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve 52.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in North Carolina sees Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 52.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 0.3 percentage points lower.