The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 47.6% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 52.4%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.