Jerome model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 58.9% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will win 41.1%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 41.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 58.9 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 5.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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