The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 59.0% of the two-party vote share in New York, while Trump will win 41.0%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 41.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.0% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.