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Jerome model in New Hampshire: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will win 45.9%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New Hampshire econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 54.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.0 percentage point higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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