The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.4% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 48.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 48.5% of the vote.
Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.