Jerome model in Montana: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 45.3% for Clinton, and 54.7% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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