The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 45.3% of the two-party vote share in Montana, whereas Trump will end up with 54.7%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 54.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Montana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.