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Jerome model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead


The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will end up with 52.6%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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