Jerome model in Mississippi: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 46.2% for Clinton, and 53.8% for Trump in Mississippi. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they may contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 56.7% of the two-party vote in Mississippi. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Mississippi.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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