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Jerome model in Michigan: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 55.1% for Clinton, and 44.9% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 44.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 0.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Michigan. This value is 55.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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