The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 55.3% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will end up with 44.7%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 44.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan.