Jerome model in Michigan: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 55.3% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will end up with 44.7%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 44.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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