Jerome model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 60.8% for Clinton, and 39.2% for Trump in Maryland. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 39.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Maryland econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 60.8 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Maryland. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 7.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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