Jerome model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 61.1% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will end up with 39.0%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 39.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.