Jerome model in Maine: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 55.1% for Clinton, and 44.9% for Trump in Maine. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, since they may include large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Maine. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Maine.