Jerome model in Louisiana: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.7% for Clinton, and 53.3% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Louisiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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