The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, while Trump will end up with 52.2%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve 52.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 62.0% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.