The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 61.2% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.