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Jerome model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 61.2% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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