The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 43.8% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will win 56.2%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 56.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.