The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 43.8% for Clinton, and 56.2% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.1% of the two-party vote in Indiana. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Indiana.