Jerome model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 58.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 41.9%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 69.0% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 10.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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