Jerome model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.0% for Clinton, and 52.1% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 52.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Georgia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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