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Jerome model in Arkansas: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will win 51.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arkansas. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 51.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 6.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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