Jerome model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 42.8% for Clinton, and 57.2% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 57.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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