Jerome model in Alaska: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 30.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, whereas Trump will win 69.1%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 69.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Alaska. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 10.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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