The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 46.0% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, while Trump will end up with 54.0%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 54.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 61.6% of the two-party vote in Alabama. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Alabama.