The Jérôme & Jérôme model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton and Trump will each win 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on October 10, Clinton was predicted to collect only 50.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.3 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
The Jérôme & Jérôme model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.1% and Trump 46.9% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.9 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.