The Issues and Leaders model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.5%. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.