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Iowa: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 45.7%.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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