Indiana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 43.4% for Clinton, and 56.6% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 56.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 0.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Indiana. This value is 56.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Indiana. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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