Results of a new poll administered by The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU were released. The poll asked respondents from Illinois for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
The results show that 53.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2 with 865 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Illinois polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 59.2%. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.