The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.4% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, whereas Trump will end up with 45.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 45.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Illinois sees Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 54.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Illinois. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.