The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 54.9% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, while Trump will end up with 45.1%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 45.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.