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Illinois: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.2% for Clinton, and 37.8% for Trump in Illinois.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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