Idaho: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 32.2% for Clinton, and 67.8% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 67.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Idaho.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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