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Holbrook & DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Holbrook & DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 47.3%. In comparison, on October 11, Clinton was predicted to collect only 52.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.0%. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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