The Holbrook & DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 47.3%. In comparison, on October 11, Clinton was predicted to collect only 52.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.0%. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.