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Hawaii: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 58.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 41.9%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they often include substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 70.5% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 12.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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