Florida: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 49.0% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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