The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will end up with 49.0%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 49.0% of the vote.
Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Florida.