Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were distributed. The poll asked participants from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 among 1000 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.