DeSart & Holbrook model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.3% for Clinton, and 47.7% for Trump in Ohio.

In Ohio, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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