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DeSart & Holbrook model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump in Florida.

In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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