DeSart & Holbrook model in Arkansas: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 40.0% for Clinton, and 60.1% for Trump in Arkansas.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arkansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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