The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump winning 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.1% and Trump 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.2 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina.