Connecticut: New Emerson poll has Trump behind by 15 points

Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

According to the results, 50.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 1000 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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