The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, whereas Trump will win 46.5%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 46.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Connecticut has Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 53.5 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.4 percentage points higher.