In today's update, Polly predicts that Clinton will end up with 53.3% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.7% for Trump.
A look at the component methods
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.0%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are index models with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 50.0% of the vote.
Trump lost 12.6 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
Compared to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 53.5% in aggregated polls is particularly high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, combined polls predicted a vote share of 53.7% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.